NWS Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBUF 211457
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
957 AM EST Fri Jan 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be very cold with some light lake effect snow showers
south and southeast of the lakes through this afternoon with
below normal temperatures lasting right through the weekend.
After a dry and seasonably cold day Saturday, a cold front will
cross the lower Great Lakes with accumulating lake effect snows
developing Saturday night and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
High pressure will continue to build south into the region today
allowing winds to become light resulting in any lingering lake
effect snow showers to retract back toward the lakes by this
afternoon.

Mainly clear skies for most of the night tonight before clouds start
to increase from the west overnight. Depending on when the clouds
arrive into the region, tonight could be one of the colder nights
of this winter, with low temperatures from zero to 10 below for most
of western New York and near 20 below for the North Country. Despite
the bitter temperatures, wind chills will not be all that much
colder than actual temperatures due to the light winds.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Sfc ridge drifts off into New England Saturday with SW flow
developing across the region. Weak warm air advection will then
provide a brief moderation in temps, but all locations will remain
below freezing for daytime highs. Highs will peak in the low to mid
20s across Western NY to teens east of Lake Ontario.

...Accumulating lake snows possible Saturday night northeast and
east of both lakes...

A clipper low and its associated cold front will near the region
late Saturday afternoon and evening. The cold front will then
quickly work from west to east across the area Saturday night. Lake
snows will then develop off both lakes as colder air rushes in
behind the front with 850 hPa dropping off to -14C/-15C. BUFKIT
profiles show equilibrium levels will briefly rise to 8K feet with
enough moisture extending through the DGZ. That said, the concern
will be residence time over any given location. Guidance (Canadian-
NH/RGEM) suggests that the Lake Erie band will waffle around a bit
before settling well to the south across far S. Erie and Chautauqua
Co. on Sunday Off Lake Ontario, a fairly decent band is advertised
to form which then slowly drops south across Jefferson, Lewis, and
then Oswego Co Saturday night into Sunday. Considering that liquid
water/snow rations will approach 20:1 or even higher advisory level
snows seem easily obtainable. Cant`even rule out low end warning
amounts despite the short residence time of the bands off both
lakes. Right now, it still looks like Lake Ontario will have the
best shot at producing warning snowfall. Off Erie, lighter amounts
are anticipated due to the advertised band waffling around before it
moves south. Will mention the lake effect snow potential in the HWO
for now.

Sunday, NW`erly flow will focus lake snows to the southeast of both
lakes with additional accumulating snows expected. Cold with highs
in the low 20s to teens across the region.

Sunday night, lake snows will weaken with diminishing returns as
drier air works in across the region. Still could see some minor
accumulations, again focused southeast of the lakes. Attention then
turns to a clipper low and its cold front advertised to approach the
Lower Lakes on Monday with increasing chances for snow showers. Any
remaining lake snows Monday return back north but in a weakened
state as flow backs to the SW.

Monday night, the clipper low passes to our north with a period of
widespread snow showers overnight. With the passage of the low and
its cold front a much colder air mass will again push into the
eastern Great Lakes as we head into Tuesday. There will also be some
minor lake snows behind the frontal passage as we head into the
middle of the week

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Behind the clipper low lake effect snow is expected east and
southeast of the lakes Wednesday with some minor accumulations.

Thereafter a surface high will build towards our region Wednesday
Night and Thursday. There are model differences on speed of this
feature, with differences in timing impacting wind direction as well
as how quickly drier air filters in to diminish the lake effect
snow.

Temperatures will predominately be below normal this period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SKC east of Lake Ontario, including KART through today.

Weakening lake effect snow showers south and southeast of the lakes
through about mid day, producing MVFR CIGS and intermittent MVFR
VSBYS at times. By this afternoon, expect an improvement to VFR as
any lingering lake flurries retract back toward the lakes.

Outlook...

Tonight and Saturday...VFR.
Sunday...MVFR/IFR with snow showers.
Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance of snow showers.
Tuesday...MVFR/IFR with snow showers likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridge will set up across the lower Great Lakes through
the start of the weekend. This will result in light winds and
negligible wave action.

Winds will freshen Saturday night and Sunday which will bring the
next round of marine headlines.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/Thomas
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion