NWS Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBUF 210536
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
136 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be near the area for the foreseeable future.
Frost is again likely for portions of the area overnight, with a
freeze possible in some locations. Dry weather and a gradual warming
trend is expected through mid-week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
Going frost advisories and freeze warnings as outlined below remain
on track for the overnight hours. Patchy frost expected elsewhere
where temps dip into the mid to upper 30s.

High pressure will continue to dominate the Northeast and Mid-
Atlantic. Result is weak easterly flow eventually shifting southeast
rest of tonight. With a strong inversion setting up and increasing
flow above the inversion, this will yield increasingly southeasterly
flow over the warmer lakes overnight as we are already seeing near
Dunkirk. Additionally, based upon how low the inversion looks to set
up, some of the higher spots along the Chautauqua Ridge will likely
remain a bit breezier overnight. This will keep lows up a bit in
these locations. Thus, the chance of frost will be lower in much of
Chautauqua County than farther east in Cattaraugus and Allegany
counties.

Otherwise, the high overhead will yield another clear and cool night
for most locations. This will allow for efficient radiational
cooling, but a weak south to southeast flow overnight will keep
temperatures up a couple degrees in most spots relative to the last
two nights. Blended forecast mins with guidance that has done better
the last couple cool nights and only change of note was to lower
mins by a few degrees over northern Jefferson county toward St.
Lawrence River valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure over the Northeast on Monday will elongate south along
the coast and center over the Southern Appalachians by Wednesday
morning. This will provide quiet weather through Wednesday
morning. All the while, flow will gradually turn southerly and
eventually southwesterly, though never really becoming all that
strong. This will result in a slow warming trend through the
short term period.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak cold front will approach the eastern Great Lakes Thursday.
High pressure will remain across the region through the end of the
week. The front may move into the North Country Thursday night
however it is likely that it will retreat back to the north by
Friday night. In the meantime, a flat shortwave trough will pass
overhead while a dry airmass persist. Can`t rule out a few showers
Friday but the chance is low.

A deep southerly flow forms this weekend as high pressure moves off
the New England coast and a strong cold front tracks east across the
Plains.

Temperatures will be above-normal late week into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions will continue through Monday afternoon with high
pressure in control.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday Night...VFR, except local IFR in river
valley fog across the Southern Tier each late night and early
morning.
Wednesday through Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure remain anchored over the Saint Lawrence Valley through
Monday night. A moderate easterly flow will gradually be replaced by
southeasterly flow later tonight and then southerly flow thereafter.
Other than along the east shoreline of Lake Erie rest of tonight,
expecting light winds and negligible waves through Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ007-021.
     Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NYZ006-020.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...Fries/JLA/TMA
SHORT TERM...Fries
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Fries/JLA/TMA
MARINE...Fries/JLA/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion