NWS Area Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS61 KBUF 120816
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
416 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Less humid air will move into today. While the bulk of the day
today will be dry, a few afternoon showers will be possible.
Warm and more humid conditions are expected to return next week
with chances for showers and thunderstorms most afternoons.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Compact shortwave exiting early this morning with showers ending
across the eastern Lake Ontario region.

Weak surface ridge building today with less humid air moving in.
For the most part the day looks dry, although mesoscale models
suggesting some spotty afternoon convection along lake breeze
boundaries. Along with the lower humidity, it will not be as
warm with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Shortwave pivots through the area tonight bringing an additional
chance for showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Generally quiet weather is anticipated for most locations after
Monday night. With that said, a potent mid-level shortwave trough
and cold front will race southeast out of Ontario Canada on Monday.
This feature as it enters the eastern Great Lakes will likely ignite
some showers or storms during the late afternoon which will then
linger into Monday night. The mid-level shortwave then exits slowly
off to our east on Tuesday. However, a few showers and storms will
still be possible in the NW`erly flow Tuesday afternoon which will
focus across North Central NY. After that, upper level ridging will
build into the eastern Great Lakes with dry weather ensuing Tuesday
night through the end of this period.

In terms of temperatures, a gradually warming trend will occur each
day with low/mid 70s expected on Monday and then by Wednesday
low/mid 80s can be anticipated.

 &&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The next upstream shortwave begins to flatten the ridge over the
region Thursday which this should be our best chance for any showers
or storms. After that, zonal flow becomes establish across the Great
Lakes region with an elongated area of high pressure anchored across
the lower half of the Lower 48 through Saturday. Heat and humidity
will also gradually increase through the end of the week into the
weekend. The next sign of any rainfall will likely not come until
sometime over the weekend as the next shortwave approaches from the
west and with its cool front. Otherwise, high temperatures will once
again climb well above normal during this time frame.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers departing the eastern Lake Ontario region this morning as
the compact shortwave exits. Valley fog will bring MVFR/IFR
conditions to the Southern Tier through 12z.

Mainly VFR weather today with just a spotty coverage of afternoon
showers/storms along lake breeze boundaries, with the best chance
along the boundary which sets up south of Lake Ontario from
KIAG to KROC.

Outlook...

Tonight...VFR with widely scattered showers. Patchy valley fog late.
Monday...VFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms likely.
Tuesday and Wednesday...VFR.
Thursday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds in the wake of a complex frontal boundary will result in
freshening winds on the Lower Great Lakes. This will result in
a period of marginal small craft advisories for Lake Ontario
this morning.

A weakening pressure gradient this afternoon and tonight will allow
winds and waves to subside. High pressure will then provide gentle
to occasional moderate breezes Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for
         LOZ042>044.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMA
NEAR TERM...Apffel/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR/EAJ
AVIATION...RSH/TMA
MARINE...RSH/TMA

NWS BUF Office Area Forecast Discussion